| 周丹,蒋达,朱嘉炜,张琦,朱元龙.综合能源系统不确定性分析综述与展望[J].高技术通讯(中文),2025,35(5):513~525 |
| 综合能源系统不确定性分析综述与展望 |
| Review and prospects of uncertainty analysis of integrated energy system |
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| DOI：10. 3772 / j. issn. 1002-0470. 2025. 05. 007 |
| 中文关键词: 综合能源系统； 不确定性建模； 场景法； 点估计法； 区间分析法 |
| 英文关键词: integrated energy system, uncertainty modeling, scenario method, point estimate method, interval analysis method |
| 基金项目: |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 周丹 | （浙江工业大学信息工程学院杭州 310023） | | 蒋达 | | | 朱嘉炜 | | | 张琦 | | | 朱元龙 | |
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| 摘要点击次数: 48 |
| 全文下载次数: 110 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 综合能源系统(integrated energy system, IES)内存在的多种不确定性因素，使得系统实际规划与运行面临各种风险，给系统安全、稳定、经济运行带来了诸多不利影响。如何削弱或消除不确定因素对综合能源系统的影响，是综合能源系统领域的重要研究内容之一。首先，本文对综合能源系统中分布式能源、负荷、交通以及能源价格等多种不确定性因素产生机理进行分析，并研究其对综合能源系统的影响；其次，重点对场景法、点估计法、区间分析法、模糊分析法以及不确定集等多种不确定性分析方法进行介绍，并详细阐述这些方法在综合能源系统能源预测、负荷预测、潮流计算、能源市场、系统规划、经济调度以及稳定控制等领域的研究情况。最后，对未来综合能源系统不确定性研究中需要关注的问题进行了展望，以期为综合能源系统不确定性研究提供参考。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The multiple uncertain factors of integrated energy system (IES) make the actual planning and operation of the system face various risks and bring many adverse effects to its stable and economical operation. How to reduce or eliminate the influence of uncertainties on IES is an important research focus in this field. Firstly, this paper analyzes the generation mechanism of various uncertain factors of IES such as distributed energy, load, transportation and energy price, and studies their influence on IES. Secondly, it focuses on introducing a variety of uncertainty analysis methods such as scenario method, point estimation method, interval analysis method, fuzzy analysis method and uncertainty set. The research of these methods in energy forecasting, load forecasting, power flow calculation, energy market, system planning, economic dispatching and stable control of IES is described in detail. Lastly, prospects for critical challenges in future research on IES uncertainty are outlined, providing insights for the research of IES. |
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